Prediction:  Richmond TV Numbers-They Will Be Massive!

Race isn’t due till Sunday.  

TV numbers won’t be out till Tuesday.

The celebration will begin immediately after Adam Stern “tweets” out the numbers.

If all holds true, they should be massive.  

Here’s My Richmond TV Numbers Prediction

I’m predicting a conservative +70% gain.  Probably even higher.  With all the other factors coming into play like running Easter evening, not going head-to-head with other races or March Madness, this should be well within reach.

A 70% GAIN?  Are You Kidding Me?  Let this 2024 Celebration Continue!

It will be the sixth consecutive week of gains and percentagewise, the largest to date by far.

What a trajectory!  We are SO BACK, Baby!

All you “NASCAR is dying” fans-read ‘em and weep!  The “NETFLIX Effect” is so real and made such a difference-just look what it has done!  Thanks for coming aboard @IcyVert.  There is NO stopping us now!

Facebook and “X” will explode.  Danielle Trotta will be pedal to the metal, wall to wall NETFLIX praise 24/7!  Larry McReynolds will be digging out more Chardonnay-drinks for everyone!  Finally, Dave Moody will constantly remind us that these are unheard of numbers and things have never been better!

Oh, Happy Days!

We’ve Never Had Numbers Like This.  Have You Lost Your Mind?

By now, you are probably asking, Nance why do you think the numbers will be off the Charts? Great racing?  Great broadcast?  Magnificent scheduling on Easter evening?  “NETFLIX Effect” going full song now?

Or have you truly lost your mind?

My sanity has come into question many times through the years, so it can’t be ruled out.  The other factors… not really.

So, Why?  What is Going On?

It’s all simple math really.

You see, in 2022 Richmond was on FOX and Chase Elliott was racing. The race pulled just under 4.000 million viewers, 3.958 million to be exact.

In 2023, FOX moved the race off of their main channel to FS1.  This always results in a significant drop in viewership as FS1 isn’t as accessible as FOX. Couple that with the fact that Chase Elliott was still out due to injury, and you have a combination where the broadcast partner LOST a whooping 1.655 million viewers for a 41.81% LOSS.

In other words, last season four of every ten viewers found something else to do that weekend.

But it’s 2024 and things are different-FOX is back.  Chase is back.  You have favorable scheduling against little competition.  Plus, NETFLIX and all the other Effects previously mentioned are in play. There is nothing to keep me from believing that the biggest part, if not all of those 2023 losses will be back Sunday night.

When you add the 1.655 million back to last year’s abysmal 2.303 million and do the math, that’s an astounding 71.86% gain in viewership.

I’ll hedge a little bit and say a few won’t tune in even with Chase racing and it being shown on the more accessible FOX plus on at a favorable time.  Maybe they OD’ed on Chocolate Easter Bunnies or are still celebrating with family or protesting even racing on Easter, so we’ll keep it a nice round 70%.

Right or wrong, that’s how I got there.

I Like It, But It Still Seems High.  Is It Right?

The numbers for a 2024 vs 2023 YoY Comparison are correct. Now whether all these changes discussed above make those two values truly comparable-I highly doubt it. Chase missing last year but back this year in and of itself makes direct comparisons questionable. A move from the less accessible FS1 to the “mothership” FOX is known to produce a huge bump-but is that comparable? I think not and if you think about it, you’d most likely agree. But to date, FOX, NASCAR, the media and the talking heads have to date all have ignored or refused to acknowledge “The Chase Elliott Effect”, choosing instead to run with the resultant and more accepted positive numbers produced.  

I have no reason to believe that this will change this Tuesday when the “Apples to Oranges” comparisons are made. Their “feel-good” results are what is needed, even if a more accurate, more direct, “Apples to Apples” comparison comparing 2022 numbers to the 2024, where both races were on FOX and Chase raced in both produces a truer representation of the direction the sport is going.  

But that’s OK.  Should not be a problem… or should it?

The Problem Is…

The biggest problem is when you make this “A2A” comparison, FOX has to get back the entirety of that 1.655 million loss (which is massive) to get to the 2022 levels and to just break even. Anything less means we have fewer fans watching today than we had two years ago. 

So What Is the Bottom Line?

The magic number is 3.958 million.  How we compare to that truly lets you know if we are trending up or down.  Anything less, means there are fewer tuning in.  Anything more is great and means more. 

And the way the numbers are calculated, you have to have a 71.86% this week to have the same number of viewers as we did in 2022, to break even.  Anything less, means there are fewer tuning in.  Anything more, means more.   Think about it, we have to have 72% or greater to truly show growth. Is anything less, is a loss really worth celebrating?  My guess is anything positive will be and if we do anything at all, it’s going to party like it’s 1999.

With all that said, for my prediction, I think it’s going to be close to flat-so 70% it is.

All that said… 

Martinsville Speedway is the only track that has been on the NASCAR premier series schedule every year since 1949. Photo courtesy of NASCAR Archives & Research Center (Photo from NASCAR Hall of Fame)

I highly doubt we’ll see any crazy talk like a 2022 vs 2024 A2A comparison even though it provides a more accurate indicator of how viewership is truly trending.  It’s just not to anyone’s who needs to benefit, benefit.  Let’s just go with the positives, a 70% looks a lot better and keeps that NETFLIX train rolling!

So, drink up!  Pour me another Kool- Aid and we’ll call it Chardonnay.

After Tuesday, it will be on to Martinsville.  The first “Chase Elliott Effect”-free race that will finally give us valid YoY comparisons.  

It should be interesting!

Till then, I’m calling a 70% for Richmond.  We’ll check back in, on Tuesday and see just how crazy I am.

Thunder On. . . and Stay Safe!

David Nance

Photo Credit (cover): Reddit

One comment

  1. Great reading! Thank you, David!
    Sorry I didn’t respond to this sooner but like has been hectic and crazy.
    I am so glad you decided to continue writing and I do look forward to reading everything you write.
    Life is still good and we keep hoping each race will improve and all will be safe. We have a whole new group and genre of viewers now than we had all those days ago when we first had our interest peak. I think we all are positive and hopeful some of the old type of racing will return.
    Again, I thank you for staying the course.

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